Ryan LewisAkron Beacon Journal
CLEVELAND — If the Guardians can stabilize their rotation during their stretch run to the postseason, it could be done with a lot of miles up and down I-71.
Cleveland's starting rotation has had a bumpy ride in 2024. Ben Lively has been an unexpected success story in his age-35 season, and Tanner Bibee has had a strong year. Outside of those two? The Guardians would love the final two months of the season to be a smoother ride than the first four-plus.
Shane Bieber looked to be back to his Cy Young candidate levels before being lost for the season (at least 2024) to Tommy John surgery, which had him fighting back tears.
Carlos Carrasco, at 37, has held his rotation spot, but barely, posting a 5.53 ERA. Xzavion Curry and Joey Cantillo have mostly been in Triple-A, and the former was just designated for assignment Monday.
Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen were each optioned to Columbus —down I-71 —to correct their respective issues, as both had ERAs balloon to north of 5.00.
Gavin Williams missed the first several months of the season while on the injured list, and it's been a mixed bag of outings since he returned.
Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd were each acquired before the trade deadline, though neither has pitched in a major league game in 2024.
Trade grades: Guardians trade deadline grades, analysis | Cleveland adds Lane Thomas, Alex Cobb
Somehow, the Guardians have to figure out how they'll piece together the rotation. And for the final 50 games of the season, it could be essentially a day-by-day operation.
"Well, since I've been in the organization, I think one thing we do very well is communicate," said pitching coach Carl Willis. "It's constant communication [between the majors, minors, front office and player development staff] … so we can collectively make the best decisions we can and gather the most information we can."
Willis noted they typically like to keep a rotation planner that is scheduled —in very, very light pencil —three weeks to a month out. Willis called it a "constantly changing document."
No kidding.
Guardians starting rotation a key factor in postseason push
The rotation might also be the biggest obstacle between the Guardians and a trip to the postseason. It isn't just the unknowns for that group itself — it's also that they don't want to overextend baseball's No. 1 bullpen.
That bullpen is a major reason why the Guardians have been one of baseball's biggest surprises this season, but they also need to get to October with that group as rested as possible. That's where the starting rotation —and its efforts to pitch as deep into games as possible —becomes a key factor.
"I think in regards to the rotation, I don't think it's been as difficult," Willis said. "I mean, obviously it was a big punch in the gut losing Shane early on. … The difference this year in comparison to prior years in Cleveland, our starters haven't gone as deep into the games, and so it's been more of a challenge managing the bullpen. We're leaning on these guys a lot."
Guardians entering key series with Twins
The Guardians are juggling a lot of factors heading into a crucial series against the second-place Minnesota Twins this weekend, which begins with a doubleheader Friday.
Bibee has been dealing with some shoulder soreness, and his day in the rotation has been pushed back althoughhe should start one of the games in Minnesota over the weekend.
Cobb, coming back from a blister (by way of a shoulder issue and, before that, hip surgery) could also make his Guardians debut this weekend against the Twins.
Boyd, coming back from Tommy John surgery, might be in that same boat. Pitchers returning from that injury often need some additional time to really find their footing, and Boyd's career 4.94 ERA in the majors isn't ideal. But the Guardians have liked how he's thrown without caution lately.
"I think coming off Tommy John … sometimes you see a little bit of hesitancy with guys coming back from the surgery in terms of trusting their arms and really getting that extension," Willis said. "There's none of that with Matt right now, and I think his outings have proven he is a strike-thrower."
Through all of that planning for the weekend series against the Twins, it's entirely possible Carrasco will lose his spot in the rotation, but nothing has been determined along those lines just yet.
With Williams, who was just roughed up by the Baltimore Orioles, the Guardians have seen progress with his pitch profiles and movement, but it's clear he isn't quite back to where he wants to be just yet.
"Yeah, he's still trying to find it, but he is gradually getting there," Willis said. "I mean, we have seen the metrics of [his cutter] go from a negative cut to a positive cut. … I think it can go a little more left, but it's going more left. Several starts ago, it wasn't going left at all, so he's making that adjustment."
Logan Allen returns from Triple-A, then is optioned right back
Allen returned to the rotation Monday night, and it looked like his trip to Cleveland might be a very short one after he allowed two home runs in his first five pitches of the game in the Guardians' 7-6 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
But after that horrendous start —which included him taking a line drive off his head, though he remained in the game — Allen settled down, allowing just one hit after the first inning and at one point retiring 10 consecutive batters.
During his stint in Triple-A Columbus, Allen worked on trusting his stuff in the zone again. He had begun to get too fine as he pitched to the corners a bit too much.
"Just trusting my stuff in zone, not trying to nibble too much, just going right after guys and making them earn it," Allen said. "I had my fair share of getting deep in accounts, so just trying to do my best to go right after guys and make them earn their way on by swinging the bat instead of free passes."
That efficiency for Allen, like the others in this group of potential starters for the Guardians, is key, not only for him but for a bullpen they're hoping to protect as much as possible.
And Allen was just happy to be back in Cleveland, even if it meant taking a line drive off the head and another one off his leg later in the game.
"I'm thankful to be back here," Allen said. "[If I'm in] Triple-A, I'd rather be up here, even if it's taking balls off the head, giving up homers. But just giving the team a chance to win is all I'm trying to do."
Allen's recovery over the final four innings was a positive sign, but due to the nature of the Guardians setting up their pitching over the next week, he was again optioned to Triple-A Columbus, something Vogt called a tough conversation.
Zooming out, the Guardians have nine pitchers — Bibee, Cobb, Williams, Lively, Allen, McKenzie, Cantillo, Carrasco and Boyd — to fill five spots in the rotation. It's a matter of figuring out which five, even it it means shuffling the deck a few times, and doing so as the race for the American League Central crown heats up.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis1@gannett.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Threads at @ByRyanLewis.
